TORIES SURGE TO THE TOP

Poilievre pops, Trudeau tanks in polls as CPC convention opens

The timing couldn’t be better for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives as poll after poll shows a commanding lead ahead of their convention. For Justin Trudeau, these same polls show many Canadians would be fine if he left office and stayed in Asia where he is currently travelling.

Last Thursday, as Conservative delegates arrived in Quebec City for their policy convention, two new polls were released showing huge leads for Poilievre’s Tories.  Abacus Data had the Conservatives with a 14 point lead over the Liberals 40% – 26 % while Angus Reid had the parties sitting at 39% and 27% respectively.

Both polls also showed the Conservatives leading in all regions except Quebec where the party’s fortunes are still improving.

What about Nanos? Came the Liberal reply online.

A Nanos poll released last week had the parties statistically tied but every other pollster has a significant lead for Poilievre over Trudeau. The Angus Reid poll even showed twice as many Canadians thought the Conservative leader would make a better prime minister with 32% choosing Poilievre to 17% for Trudeau, 15% for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and 26% saying none of them are a good option.

The shocking thing in all of this is that the Liberals haven’t defined and punished Poilievre in the last year since he was elected leader. On a recent episode of the Full Comment podcast, Conservative strategist Kory Teneycke said that the Liberals deciding not to run attack ads against Poilievre after he was elected was a big mistake.

“They would have had that opportunity with Poilievre, and they chose not to do it. I assume part of that is their fundraising issues,” Teneycke said, noting the Liberals trail the  conservatives by a wide margin in fundraising.

“I think the annals of history will show that as a major campaign error.”

The Liberals didn’t run those ads when they had a chance and now, Poilievre has had the chance to crisscross the country multiple times meeting Canadians, speaking to them and introducing himself. The Conservative Party also launched a $3 Million ad campaign that covered television, radio, print and online media with ads aimed at showing Poilievre as a family man concerned about fixing Canada and dealing with top issues like the cost of living.

When twice as many people tell Angus Reid pollsters that Poilievre would be a better prime minister or Abacus Data finds that more people have a positive than negative impression of Poilievre, that makes a shift. When voters in Atlantic Canada, Trudeau’s strongest base of support for eight years, begin to move to the Conservatives, that marks a shift.

It’s too early for Poilievre and his team to declare victory and start writing Trudeau’s political obituary though.

First off, we don’t know when an election is coming. Given that it is a minority Parliament, it could come in a matter of weeks, or, thanks to the coalition deal Trudeau struck with Singh, it might not come until 2025 when the deal expires.

Secondly, counting out Justin Trudeau is simply foolish. The man may be a bad prime minister, but he is a good campaigner as he has shown by winning three elections in a row.